Friday, December 14, 2012

Dot Earth Blog: Leak of IPCC Drafts Speaks to Need for New Process

8:33 p.m. | Updated below |
A WikiLeaks-style Web dump of drafts of the 2013 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change?provides fresh evidence that the organization?s policies and procedures are a terrible fit for an era in which transparency will increasingly be enforced on organizations working on consequential energy and environmental issues.

The documents were posted today at Stopgreensuicide.com?[see addendum], a Web site launched by Alec Rawls, a passionate foe of restrictions on greenhouse gases (with a very quirky pedigree) who signed up ? like almost anyone could ? to be one of 800 reviewers offering more than 30,000 comments on this draft report, which focuses on the basic science examining the extent of the human influence on the climate system.

The drafts, on everything from the quality of climate models to measurements of sea level rise and Arctic ice loss, have plenty for anyone with an agenda related to global warming. Critics of aggressive action to cut greenhouse gases, Rawls included, are focusing on language relating to solar influences on climate. [10:19 p.m. | Updated The Web site Skeptical Science has deconstructed, and largely de-fanged, the idea there's something big here.]

But there?s plenty of language for those pressing the case for action, including the new capstone statement on the role of greenhouse gases in driving warming since 1950:

It is extremely likely* that human activities have caused more than half of the observed increase in global?average surface temperature since the 1950s. There is high confidence? that this has caused large-scale?changes in the ocean, in the cryosphere, and in sea level in the second half of the 20th century. Some extreme events have changed as a result of anthropogenic influence. [*In panel terminology, "extremely likely" denotes a 95-percent likelihood.]

I?ve appended links to the sections of the draft report below. [10:15 p.m. | Updated |?Rawls' Web site is down for the moment. See addendum for fresh link.]

It?s important, before anyone attacks Rawls for posting the drafts (this is distinct from his views on their contents), to consider that panel report drafts at various stages of preparation have been leaked in the past by people with entirely different points of view.

That was the case in 2000, when I was leaked a final draft of the summary for policy makers of the second science report from the panel ahead of that year?s round of climate treaty negotiations. As I explained in the resulting news story, ?A copy of the summary was obtained by The New York Times from someone who was eager to have the findings disseminated before the meetings in The Hague.?

Here?s a question I sent tonight to a variety of analysts of the panel?s workings over the years:

The leaker, Alec Rawls, clearly has a spin. But I?ve long thought that I.P.C.C. was in a weird losing game in trying to boost credibility through more semi-open review while trying to maintain confidentiality at same time.?I?m sympathetic to the idea of having more of the I.P.C.C. process being fully open (a layered?Public Library of Science-style?approach to review can preserve the sanity of authors) in this age of enforced transparency (WikiLeaks being the most famous example).

I?ll post answers as they come in.

The climate panel is a remarkable 24-year-old experiment in funneling insights and advice across the is-ought divide between the worlds of climate science and policy. The institution was created in 1988 under United Nations auspices to offer periodic assessments of the causes and consequences of climate change, as well as possible responses.

But even as it has been heaped with accolades, including the 2007 Nobel Peace Price, the panel has been criticized from within and without for inconsistency across its three working groups (on basic science, impacts of climate change, and options for mitigating risk), for inadequate procedures for addressing errors and for glacially slow drafting processes that limit the utility and relevance of the process.

I?d love to think there?s a way for the countries that created the organization to come up with the technical and financial support it would need for a fundamental re-boot.

8:33 p.m. |Update

Paul Baer, a climate policy analyst at the Georgia Institute of Technology and contributing author to the panel?s next Working Group 3 report (on policy options), posted a comment that?s well worth elevating into the main post:

This is a problem I?ve been thinking about for many years, and in fact I presented a talk at AGU last week on one aspect, the creation of ?traceable accounts? of the justification for the probability judgments that are ubiquitous in the reports.

The problem has several different aspects, but at its heart, it really depends on the question of whose opinion counts. At the moment, the process is ?managed? by the selection of chapter authors by the IPCC. If you?re a chapter author, your voice will be counted in any discussion of what level of uncertainty to apply to a ?finding? in that chapter; if you?re a reviewer, not so much.

There is an alternative, web-based model, in which participation is open ? at least at some level ? but in which opinions have to be justified, and evaluation is done by weighting opinions. This means, among other things, that different ?users? of the results could weight the various opinions differently. But that in fact is what happens already; this would make it more transparent.

The process would separate the development of expert opinion on a particular question (how likely is it really that X?) from the overall assessment process; a single ?finding? would be more like a Wikipedia page. It would not replace the IPCC process entirely, but it would offer a great deal more transparency to the subjective probability judgments that are the flashpoint for these debates.

Here are the sections to the report draft [see addendum]:

Summary for Policymakers
Chapter 1: Introduction
Chapter 2: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface
Chapter 3: Observations: Ocean
Chapter 4: Observations: Cryosphere
Chapter 5: Information from Paleoclimate Archives
Chapter 6: Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles
Chapter 7: Clouds and Aerosols
Chapter 8: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing
Chapter 8 Supplement
Chapter 9: Evaluation of Climate Models
Chapter 10: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional
Chapter 11: Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability
Chapter 12: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility
Chapter 13: Sea Level Change
Chapter 14: Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change
Chapter 14 Supplement
Technical Summary

[10:11 p.m. | Addendum |The files above are available elsewhere on the Web, including here.]

Source: http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/13/leak-of-climate-panel-drafts-speaks-to-need-for-new-process/?partner=rss&emc=rss

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Airlines industry: US carriers to lead recovery in profits in 2013, mainly due to cost-cutting

GENEVA - U.S. airlines will lead a recovery in the global sector's profits next year, mainly thanks to cost cuts and restructuring measures taken to address weak economic growth, the industry's trade group forecast Thursday.

Carriers in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America will also enjoy an improvement in earnings, while those in Europe are expected to only break even as they continue to suffer from the region's economic crisis.

The industry expects global net profits of $8.4 billion in 2013. It anticipates $6.7 billion for this year, based on strong second and third quarters ? particularly for larger carriers ? despite high fuel prices and weaker demand.

The 2013 results would still be below the $8.8 billion earned in 2011 and $15.8 billion in 2010. The net profit margin, at 1 per cent, would also be well below the 7 to 8 per cent officials say is needed to recover capital costs.

The International Air Transport Association's annual review focused on the impact of annual world economic growth falling below 2 per cent and Brent crude oil trading at $109.5 a barrel.

"Airlines have adjusted to this difficult environment through improving efficiency and restructuring," said Tony Tyler, chief executive of the Geneva-based global trade group.

Tyler told reporters in Geneva that airlines' financial performance hinged partly on their size.

"Economies of scale are helping larger airlines to cope much better with the difficult environment than small and medium-sized carriers which continue to struggle," he said.

IATA, whose 240 member airlines carry 84 per cent of all passengers and cargo, said the industry's overall revenue in 2013 is expected to rise to $659 billion from $637 billion this year, while costs will go up to $640 billion from $623 billion.

North American airlines are expected to do best in 2013, posting a combined net profit of $3.4 billion, ahead of $3.2 billion in Asia Pacific, $1.1 billion in the Middle East and $700 million in Latin America, the IATA estimated.

Tyler said airlines are expected to benefit from U.S. economic growth ? forecast to be the strongest among developed economies ? despite talk of a "fiscal cliff" of automatic tax hikes and spending cuts that the government could face.

Carriers in Europe and Africa, on the other hand, are among the worst off and expected to merely break even for 2012 and 2013.

Europe's airlines last turned a profit, of $400 million, in 2011, as the region's debt crisis weighs on demand for travel, the IATA estimated.

"The carriers in Europe are particularly gloomy, I would say, based on talks with CEOs," said Tyler.

The continuing financial uncertainty hovering over the European economy, high taxes and inefficient infrastructure will continue to plague the continent's industry next year, the trade group said.

"Certainly there are opportunities for further consolidation of airlines in Europe," said Tyler, adding that major carriers such as Lufthansa, KLM and International Airlines Group, despite their own struggles, may try to buy up some of the smaller airlines.

Meanwhile, global air freight markets are "very weak," Tyler said. Cargo demand is expected to increase by 1.4 per cent in 2013, not enough to make up for the 2 per cent decline suffered in 2012.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/airlines-industry-us-carriers-lead-recovery-profits-2013-150019103.html

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Thursday, December 13, 2012

For Klinsmann, being wrong is OK

I was among a small group of journalists who had breakfast recently with Jurgen Klinsmann, the U.S. national team coach whose methods and player selection tendencies can sometimes lean to the less conventional. The results so far have been mostly favorable, even if the aesthetic hasn?t always risen to expectation.

Over the next week or so, we will extract one element each day of the extremely informative conversation, where Klinsmann expanded candidly on subjects ranging from Jozy Altidore to evolving player roles to Jermaine Jones to future matches and all points in between.

Today?s topic: Being OK with being wrong

Jurgen Klinmann recalled one particularly tough, recent conversation with a U.S. player. The test results, performed at regular intervals, weren?t what they needed to be for this individual.

Klinsmann feared the guy just wasn?t ?getting it,? was not embracing the collective push for individual enrichment. The U.S. coach feared his pupil had reached a plateau, more or less satisfied about his place in the profession, lesser willing to push through the sticking points and lean into the extra work attached to a perennial drive for improvement.

So he had one those conversations, a man-to-man talk that only a type like Klinsmann can have, where harsh words don?t sound so harsh, where it all remains rather positive. Said he U.S. national team boss: ??He told me ?I will prove you wrong, coach? I told him, ?I want you to prove me wrong!?

If Klinsmann can make the breakthrough the U.S. national team needs, to get past its own sticking point, that attitude surely will be a bedrock of the betterment.

This is where Klinsmann?s obvious lack of ego pays off.

Klinsmann is nearly peerless in this place where experience, life balance, personal confidence and positive energy all meet to spin a relatively ego-free cocoon around the program. If it all works ? and we?ll know by the summer of 2014 ? this will be the foremost of less tangible reasons.

Lesser secure managers can get tripped up and distracted, worried about their jobs or their reputations (which leads to worry over their next job.) Then comes the gradual creep of shifting priorities; the safety net of short-term results may begin to overwhelm and displace the larger reach for success. They get obsessed with being ?right? and fumble the larger plot.

By all appearances, Klinsmann doesn?t need to be ?right? about things, which is why he avoids closing doors (or leaving them open when they shouldn?t be).

?When we have that kind of a conversation, we hope for that kind of reaction,? he said of the unnamed player?s figurative fighting stance. ?We hope for this kind of learning curve.?

You may disagree with Klinsmann?s decisions; I certainly have raised a curious brow here and there. But the decisions seem reliably rooted in some sort of long-term strategy, devoid of the internal politics and petty distractions.

Klinsmann may opt not to select this guy or that guy, and we may not always understand why. But Klinsmann?s security, his clear embrace of transparency and his congenial relationships with media tells us this much:

His choices truly are about tweaking the chemistry and the individual talent factor, about the push for long-term improvement rather than about lesser motives, the power struggles or about the desire to ?be right? about this player or about that strategic philosophy. Stubbornness and a rigid inflexibility that can rule some managers? worlds don?t seem to infect his.

source: Getty Images

Look at Brek Shea. The FC Dallas winger was plucked by Klinsmann and loaded into a launching tube of potential stardom. Shea played in Klinsmann?s first 14 games in charge. Then came the important May-June training came, and Klinsmann decided that Shea just wasn?t where he needed to be.

No matter what you think of Klinsmann and his first year and a half in charge, this much is clear: The man is OK with being wrong about something or someone.

?I definitely had coaches that had huge influence on what I am doing today, where specific moments had more of a long-term perspective,? he said.

Klinsmann then spun long stories about managers who had a similar flexibility, like Arsene Wenger and Giovanni Trapattoni. (Although that may have been harder for some of us to see from the outside.)

He told a story about Trapattoni. (?An amazing, amazing personality, and that?s why they still love him there,? Klinsmann said.) ?During their shared time at Inter Milan, Trapattoni did not understand Klinsmann?s desire to learn the Italian language and culture, to break down personnel barriers and get to a place where everyone could focus on the game and not waste energy on language-impaired locker room politics.

Later, when they were together again at Bayern Munich, Trapattoni acknowledged his error: ??He told me, ?Jurgen, remember all those years ago at inter Milan? ? I should have approached that differently. Now I understand how important the language is.? ?

(MORE of the Klinsmann conversation: explaining Jermaine Jones)

(MORE of the Klinsmann conversation: Landon Donvan?s career crisis)

(MORE of the Klinsmann conversation: Jozy Altidore?s recent roster omission)

TOMORROW: Carlos Bocanegra?s evolving role

Source: http://prosoccertalk.nbcsports.com/2012/12/11/breakfast-with-united-states-coach-jurgen-klinsmann-todays-topic-being-ok-with-being-wrong/related/

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Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Police release video of suspect in Manhattan shooting

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By Jonathan Dienst, Shimon Prokupecz and Brynn Gingras, NBCNewYork.com

Police have released surveillance video of the suspect wanted in the execution-style slaying of a man near Columbus Circle in New York City at the height of the holiday shopping season Monday afternoon.

Police said Tuesday they were still searching for the gunman who walked up behind Brandon Woodard as he walked through busy midtown Manhattan and shot him in the back of the head outside a Catholic school just before 2 p.m.

Authorities have said they believe the shooting was planned in advance. The surveillance video shows the suspect 10 minutes before the shooting. He was seen getting out of a late model Lincoln sedan, shooting Woodard from behind and then getting back into the vehicle. The car, driven by someone else, sped away, police said.

Police also released a still photograph of the suspect walking up behind Woodard moments before he pulled the trigger.

Woodard, 31, was pronounced dead at the hospital. Shell casings for the silver semi-automatic weapon were found at the scene.

People on the street who heard the gunshot and saw the man fall ran to the firehouse on the block to get help.

"We all flinched because it was so close," said Benny Harris.

A native of Los Angeles, Woodard was most recently living in Chicago, according to public records. He lived in Yucca Valley and Playa Vista in California before that. It's not clear why he was in New York City. Police said Woodard had prior arrests in Los Angeles but had no other details.

Woodard's father told the Daily News he has a young daughter and was enrolled in law school.

Source: http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/12/11/15839491-police-release-surveillance-video-of-suspect-in-fatal-manhattan-shooting?lite

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Monday, December 10, 2012

The Best Way To Sleeping Simple Without the need of Problematic ...

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Today Pot Is Legal in Colorado - Hit & Run : Reason.com

Today Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper signed a proclamation recognizing last month's passage of Amendment 64, that state's marijuana legalization measure, meaning that all state penalties for possession of up to an ounce and home cultivation of up to six plants by adults 21 and older are abolished as of now. ?Voters were loud and clear on Election Day," Hickenlooper said. "We will begin working immediately with the General Assembly and state agencies to implement Amendment 64."

Hickenlooper was referring to the parts of the initiative calling for a state-regulated system of commercial production and distribution. The Colorado Department of Revenue has until next July to write regulations for growers and sellers. Hickenlooper has appointed a 24-member Task Force on the Implementation of Amendment 64 to assist with that process.

In the meantime, Colorodans can grow their own and transfer up to an ounce "not for remuneration." By contrast, pot smokers in Washington, where a marijuana legalization initiative took effect last Thursday, won't have a licit source until pot shops licensed by the state liquor control board are up and running (sometime after next December, the deadline for regulations). Mason Tvert, co-director of the Yes on 64 campaign, comments:

This is a truly historic day. From this day forward, adults in Colorado will no longer be punished for the simple use and possession of marijuana. We applaud Gov. Hickenlooper for issuing this declaration in a timely fashion, so that adult possession arrests end across the state immediately.?

We look forward to working with the governor's office and many other stakeholders on the implementation of Amendment 64. We are certain that this will be a successful endeavor and Colorado will become a model for other states to follow.

Yesterday Len Gilroy and Harris Kenny warned Colorado policy makers about potential pitfalls in implementing Amendment 64.

Source: http://reason.com/blog/2012/12/10/today-pot-is-officially-legal-in-colorad

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Friday, December 7, 2012

Phoenix Real Estate Market Best Performing in Nation | For Sale ...

Phoenix Ranks Top in Nation for Real EstateThe Phoenix real estate market is back, and is moving in a positive direction.?According to the existing home sales numbers issued by the National Association of Realtors, Phoenix was the best performing market in the United States.?More importantly, it isn?t just inventory that?s reducing, but prices are coming back as well.

The Phoenix market had a 35% increase in the average home price over the same month in 2011. ?This is due in large part to the number of foreclosures that flooded the market in 2011. ?In fact, in September 2011, 50% of all of the homes sold in Phoenix were foreclosures. ?The downward pressure on pricing that foreclosures is the absolute biggest factor in those reduced prices over the last few years. ?Banks in many cases just want to get the home off of their books , and any reasonable offer was accepted. ?When those sales figures started to be factored in, prices plummeted.

Now that those foreclosures have worked their way through the system, just 13% of the homes sold this September were foreclosures. ?The best news of all? ?Analysts predict that the trend will continue into 2013.

New home construction, which previously had been almost non-existent and which often pushes prices in an area up, is back with a vengeance. ?That coupled with low unemployment in Phoenix l, strong demand from retirees, and excellent affordability of quality housing ? the market is primed to be strong especially in the most desirable areas.

If you are currently considering purchasing a home in Phoenix or a surrounding area, please contact us! It would be our pleasure to share with you all of the wonderful opportunities that currently exist in the Phoenix real estate market.

Showing properties 1 - 20 of 500+. See more Phoenix Homes For Sale.
(all data current as of 12/7/2012)

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Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

Source: http://forsalephoenixhomes.com/buyers/phoenix-real-estate-market-best-performing-in-nation/

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Russia's Shoigu set to retake illegally-sold military property : Voice ...

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Dec 6, 2012 13:20 Moscow Time

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Mr. Kurakin said the ministry was going to take legal action against a number of deals in order to void them.

Voice of Russia, RIA

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Source: http://english.ruvr.ru/2012_12_06/Russia-s-Shoigu-set-to-retake-illegally-sold-military-property/

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Jonathan Demme Crosses 11/22/63 Off His Calendar

Moving easily and often between documentaries and feature film projects, Jonathan Demme has always got a few things on the go at any given time. This year alone has seen him direct?theater legends Wallace Shawn and Andr? Gregory in their re-teaming in "Wally And Andr? Shoot Ibsen," hit the festival circuit with "Enzo Avitabile Music Life," get involved as a producer on "Song One" with Anne Hathaway set to star, and pick up a directing credit on "Old Fires." But it looks like one project has fallen off his slate.

With the Marrakech Film Festival in full swing, Demme is one of the directors receiving a tribute, and our own Jessica Kiang got to quickly sit down with the filmmaker and chat about what he's working on, or in the case of Stephen King's "11/22/63," no longer working on.?"That's off the table," he shared about the film that he was first attached to in 2011.

To be certain, it's an ambitious undertaking, with the nearly 900-page book centering on Jake Epping, who travels back in time from the present to try to stop the assassination of JFK, by going to 1958 and starting a new life that will, he hopes, allow him to change the course of history. But of course, that is just one thread in a dense novel, and over the summer Demme told us, "There?s a dozen movies in '11/22/63.' We?re finding the one that we think is kind of the best of all." But it seems the director and the author ultimately couldn't see eye to eye.

"This is a big book, with lots in it. And I loved certain parts of the book for the film more than Stephen did. We're friends, and I had a lot of fun working on the script, but we were too apart on what we felt should be in and what should be out of the script," Demme said, before confirming he was off the project.?"I had an option and I let it go. But I hope it's moving forward, I really want to see that movie."?

Fans of King needn't be too worried, as you can't throw a rock without hitting something written by the author that is being brought to TV or the movies. In fact, just a few days ago THR reported that "The Walking Dead" and "Super 8" kids Chandler Riggs and Joel Courtney are starring in "Mercy," a film based on the King short story "Gramma." And "Under The Dome" also recently got a series order at CBS. So we're sure it won't be too long until "11/22/63" finds some new life.?

As for Demme, he too has a number of things brewing, so stayed tuned as we'll have more from our conversation with him in Marrakech soon.

Source: http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/1926408/news/1926408/

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